Pokémon 30th Anniversary Prices Just Crashed — Is the Set Already a Failure?

The Pokémon 30th Anniversary Celebration has barely launched, but some of its biggest chase cards have already suffered massive price drops.

We’re not talking about a slow correction over six months.

Some prices fell more than 70%–90% within the first week.

In Malaysia, the same thing is happening with sealed products. Around a month before launch, some 30th Anniversary ETB preorders were being offered for as high as RM1,000. Today, we’re already seeing sellers asking around RM500.

So what happened?

And more importantly: is Pokémon’s huge 30th Anniversary already turning into a failure?

The First Week Has Been Brutal

Based on the market tracking shown in the screenshots, several major 30th Anniversary cards have fallen dramatically from their early prices.

Those percentages look terrifying.

Mew ex, for example, went from a tracked high of more than RM8,000 to around RM525. Pikachu ex 149/128 had a tracked high around RM3,747 and is now around RM396.

However, there’s an important catch.

Those early prices were established when almost nobody had the cards yet.

Current completed-sale data also confirms that prices are still moving extremely quickly. Jirachi ex 155/128, for example, recorded sales ranging from roughly RM290 to above RM800 within only a few days, showing just how immature the market currently is. (PriceCharting)

Even the ETB Went From RM1,000 to RM500

Malaysia gives us an even easier example.

Before release, uncertainty around allocation and huge anniversary hype pushed some local ETB preorders as high as approximately RM1,000.

Now that the product has actually launched, we’ve seen sellers asking around RM500.

That’s basically half the preorder price.

Did demand suddenly disappear?

Probably not.

What disappeared was uncertainty about supply.

Before release, nobody knew how difficult these products would be to get. After release, more stock appeared, more packs were opened and buyers suddenly had choices.

Why Are Singles Falling So Fast?

One possible reason is surprisingly simple:

People are pulling them. A lot.

Early opening reports have described the 30th Celebration hit rates as unusually generous, particularly for Special Illustration Rares. (GamesRadar+)

That’s fantastic news if you’re opening packs for fun.

It may not be such good news if you paid an enormous launch price for a single.

Every day more products are opened, more copies enter the market.

And when supply grows faster than the number of buyers willing to pay RM1,000, RM2,000 or RM5,000 for a card, prices have only one direction to go.

But We’ve Seen the Opposite Happen With the 25th Anniversary

This is where things become interesting.

While 30th Anniversary prices are crashing immediately after launch, the video shows that several major 25th Anniversary cards actually appreciated significantly over the following three years.

The pattern is important.

These cards didn’t need to maintain crazy launch prices to perform well over the longer term. Once the initial excitement settled, collectors had time to decide which cards they actually wanted — and over the following three years, many of the popular cards appreciated substantially.

So the huge first-week decline we’re seeing with the 30th Anniversary doesn’t necessarily tell us where these cards will be three years from now.

A card can crash from an unrealistic launch price, find its real market value, and then gradually appreciate again as supply dries up and collector demand grows.

That may be the more useful lesson from the 25th Anniversary:

Don’t confuse a launch-week price crash with the long-term performance of the set.

Maybe We’re Measuring “Success” the Wrong Way

This is where the 30th Anniversary gets interesting.

If Mew drops 90%, speculators might call the set a disaster.

But collectors might say:

Wah, now I can actually afford the card.

Those are two completely different definitions of success.

A successful Pokémon set doesn’t necessarily require every chase card to cost RM2,000.

In fact, easier pull rates and cheaper singles could encourage more collectors to complete the set.

The 30th Anniversary could therefore be an enormous success as a collecting product, while disappointing people who expected every chase card to become an investment.

Don’t Call It a Crash Yet

There is one major warning.

We’re only about a week into the market.

Current prices are still extremely unstable. Even recent completed transactions for individual cards vary significantly from one sale to another. (PriceCharting)

More products still need to be opened.

Malaysian supply is still entering the market.

Collectors are still deciding which cards they actually want.

And eventually, the market will discover which cards are genuinely difficult to pull and which ones only looked scarce before release.

So seeing Mew fall 93% doesn’t necessarily mean it “lost 93% of its real value.”

It may mean the original price was never realistic in the first place.

Failure or Completely Normal?

Right now, we’d say:

Too early to call it a failure.

What we’re witnessing looks much more like aggressive price discovery after extreme preorder and launch hype.

The real test comes over the next few months.

If products continue flooding the market, pull rates remain generous and singles keep falling, collectors could end up with one of the most affordable anniversary sets Pokémon has released.

And maybe that’s not a bad thing.

Because the 30th Anniversary was created to celebrate Pokémon.

Not to guarantee that the card you pulled yesterday will be worth more tomorrow.